Dexas Holdem

MTT Tournament Simulator

Monte Carlo · full-field variance
Bankroll calculator →

1. The Tournament

Field size

10-2,000 players.

Buy-in ($)

Used to compute ROI.

Rake / fee (%)

Subtracted from prize pool.

2. Payouts (% of field paid)

Paid spots

% of field that cashes (15% is standard MTT).

Payout curve

Top-heavy = bigger 1st-place prize.

3. Your Skill Edge

How much better than average are you? Real MTT skill edges are small at recreational stakes (5-15%) and tiny at high stakes (1-5%).

+10%

4. Run It

Simulations

Ready.

How the simulation works: Hand-by-hand simulation of a 1,000-player tournament would take minutes. Instead, this model abstracts each elimination as a probabilistic event weighted by chip stack and skill: short stacks are more likely to bust at any moment, and skilled players are less likely to bust at any given stack. When someone busts, their chips go to a random opponent at the table. Repeat until one player has all the chips. Do that 1,000+ times to build a distribution of where you finished.

What "+10% skill" means: Your effective bust rate at any chip stack is 10% lower than an average opponent's. Over a large field, this produces roughly the ROI numbers it implies — a +10% skill player should average around +10% ROI on buy-ins (before rake). Add rake back in and your gross ROI needs to clear the rake to be net-positive.

What it captures: field-size variance, payout-shape impact, the math of why MTTs swing so hard. What it doesn't: specific decisions (push/fold, bluffs), late registration EV, ICM-aware play near the bubble. Use this for big-picture sizing (how often do I cash? how big is variance?), not tactical study.